Morning Forex Technical

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by Dukascopy Swiss FX Group

EUR/USD falls sharply

‘Images of protests in Greece during Angela Merkel’s visit reminded markets that severe austerity measures imposed in Europe come at a large social cost, casting a dark shadow of doubt on a quick resolution in Europe’ – Credit Agricole (based on CNBC)

Pair’s Outlook

After breaching 1.2963/39 the currency pair dived to 1.2856/26 yesterday, which holds for now, but is nevertheless being eroded. The support is reinforced by a subsequent level at 1.2799/84, meaning that together they are likely to withstand bearish pressure. However, if this key area is breached, the medium-term outlook will be changed to a negative one.

Traders’ Sentiment

Bearish sentiment of SWFX marketplace participants has become even less distinct, as the difference between the shares of short and long positions has narrowed to 8% from 14% yesterday. Distribution among buy and sell orders also does not give a clear insight into current preferences of the market, being 53% to 48%, respectively.

GBP/USD struggles at 1.6000/1.5967

‘The trade balance and industrial production suggest that the [U.K.] economy may have struggled to recover in the third quarter’ – Citi (based on Reuters)

Pair’s Outlook

GBP/USD declined along with EUR/USD, although to a more modest extent. The currency couple is presently attempting to overcome 1.6000/1.5967 and is expected to remain on a bearish path, even though a chance of a consolidation/correction increases. The next target lies at 1.5911, while the nearest serious threat to current downward tendency is located at 1.5828/04 (200-day SMA).

Traders’ Sentiment

A considerable amount of traders, namely 63% of the market, are holding short positions on GBP/USD, expecting the Sterling to carry on depreciating relatively to the U.S. Dollar. Accordingly, only 37% of them believe in an alternative scenario and stay long on the currency pair.

USD/JPY stalls at 78.18/77.99

‘The tone of the market still feels greatly uncertain as we head into earnings season in the United States and indeed the market is now focusing its attention that way as it seeks out bad news wherever it can find it’ – Faros Trading (based on CNBC)

Pair’s Outlook

USD/JPY remains in proximity to a formidable support zone that stretches from 78.18 down to 77.99 and the pair is reluctant at the moment to challenge it. Still, since the price has recently bounced off a downtrend resistance line, it is anticipated to continue sliding lower. The next notable support should be found at 77.53/37, which is unlikely to give in, but rather initiate an eventual recovery.

Traders’ Sentiment

While the Japanese Yen stays as the most unpopular currency in the SWFX marketplace, being acquired only in 29% of cases, an overwhelming majority (72%) of positions opened on USD/JPY are long. As for the orders, 82% are to buy and 18% are to sell the greenback against of the Yen

USD/CHF advances towards 0.9406/46

‘It’s [USD] a good short-term and long-term play. The U.S. economy is looking much better than the other economies of the world. Europe has a possibility of a bad nick with the Greek situation’ – FX Concepts LLC (based on Bloomberg)

Pair’s Outlook

The price has disregarded a downtrend resistance at 0.9340/52 and soared up to 0.9406/46, thus forming a double bottom pattern, which implies a robust rally once the neckline is penetrated. The initial goal would then be at 0.9493/0.9503, while continuation of a surge could push the pair up to 0.9569/89. On the other hand, indicators give mixed signals

Traders’ Sentiment

Bulls have expanded their dominance in USD/CHF currency couple, as the Swiss Franc is the second least preferred currency after the Yen. Right now 73% of positions are long and only 27% are short, making the pair overbought. At the same time 51% of orders are buy and 49% are sell.

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Gold points higher, but firming dollar weighs!

Gold picked up slightly following a three-day loss, hovering around $1,766 areas ahead of the U.S. market buzz on Wednesday, as the dollar continue to build up on the darkening outlook of the global economy and the euro zone debt crisis kept a heavy weight on appetite for bullions.

Spot gold was up 0.18 percent at $1,765.90 an ounce as of 12:33 GMT, from an opening of $1,762.60, after the metal recorded an intraday high of $1,767.95 and low of $1,760.20. Gold futures were up 0.16 percent at $1,766.40, from an opening of $1,764.30.

Metals market is still hung over the latest stimulus measures by the U.S. Federal Reserve and European Central Bank, but lack of first-tier fundamentals has so far kept less-riskier assets into favor, tipping the greenback to its highest in nearly a month against six currencies.

The U.S. dollar drew some strength from the vulnerable euro. The USDIX, which tracks the performance of the greenback against a six-currency basket, was down 0.5 percent at 79.89, after recording a session high of 80.31 and low of 80.01, compared with the day`s opening of 80.08.

Risk appetite continue to be dampened, with Spain resisting a bailout request and German Chancellor Angela Merkel shy to pledge further aid to Greece as her visit to the Athens was welcomed by ruthless protests from a nation marred by years of austerity measures and recession.

Still, the yellow precious metal could be poised for its first four-day losing streak since August if the euro continued to show weakness against its U.S. counterpart, as fears continue to weigh on market sentiment since the International Monetary Fund shaved its global growth forecast for 2013 and 2013.

Eyes will be on the Fed’s Beige Book ahead of the next Fed Policy Meeting at the end of the month and that will keep investors tensed to see what the Feds will say about the state of the economy, even if it is a very slim chance more easing will be undertaken by the Fed this month.

We also expect choppy correctional trading for gold to continue as European tension prevails ahead of the EU Summit next week that might see more surprises from the leaders!

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Euro Dips Further after IMF GFSR Report

Market Overview | Written by ActionForex.com

Euro continues to correct lower against other major currencies after IMF warned that the Eurozone is exposed to a “downward spiral of capital flight, breakup fears and economic decline”. In the Global Financial Stability Report, IMF said that risks to financial stability have increased since April as “confidence in the global financial system has become very fragile”. And, “intensification of the crisis has manifested itself in capital outflows from the periphery to the core at a pace typically associated with currency crises or sudden stops.” And IMF predicted that European banks might need to offload as much as $2.8b in assets over the next two years to lower their exposures. That’s $200b higher than the estimate back in April. Yesterday, IMF lowered estimates of global GDP to 3.3% for this year and 3.6% for 2013.

In the Ecofin meeting held Tuesday, it’s decided that Portugal would be given an extra year to meet its deficit target and “the recommendation sets deficit targets of 5.0 % of GDP for 2012, 4.5 % of GDP for 2013 and 2.5 % of GDP for 2014″. Regarding the banking union, Dutch Finance Minister Jan Kees de Jager stated that it is difficult for the EU to create a single mechanism for banking supervision (the banking union) by the deadline of January 1. Disappointedly, there’s no progress on Spain’s request for bailout.

Technically, EUR/USD is set to dip to 1.28 and below to extend recent consolidation. EUR/JPY will also take out 100 psychological level to 99.63 support. EUR/GBP looks topped below recent resistance of 0.8114 is possibly heading back to 0.8 and below. EUR/AUD is still heading back to 1.2328/2552 support zone. So overall, Euro will likely be soft in near term. Though, the larger outlook is still bullish in the common currency and thus, we’d expect the current weakness in Euro to be relatively limited.

Fed Vice Chairman Yellen pledged that it will unwind the asset purchases “in a timely manner” at appropriate time to avoid inflationary pressures. She also emphasized that “stronger US growth is beneficial for the entire global economy”. Yellen also said it’s not Fed’s intention to make capital flows more difficult and the emerging nations will have tools to manage that.

BoE Governor said that total output in UK now is “some 15% below an extrapolation of its precrisis trend” and he warned that the “gap is likely to persist for some time.” King said that there is “no technical limit” on asset purchases, but there are “limits to what monetary policy as such can do.”HE also said that the current difficulties in solving the European crisis bore a comparison with the disputes in the 1920s over German war reparations that was “too poignant to dwell on”.

On the data front, Australian westpac consumer confidence rose 1.0% in October. Japan machine tool orders dropped -3.0% yoy in September. US will release wholesale inventories and Fed’s Beige Book later today.

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Euro recovers ground but downside risks persist

FXstreet.com (Córdoba) – After three consecutive sessions of declines, the euro found support and recovered from a weekly low versus the dollar. However, the shared currency remains vulnerable to further losses as uncertainties over whether and when Spain will apply for a bailout and Greece will receive its next tranche of aid persist.
The market sentiment remains slightly negative as US earning session gets underway. Worries about company results drove investors to safer assets. European stocks were lower, but US indexes opened nearly unchanged, and a quiet earnings calendar today will provide no catalyst in this respect.
Going forward, the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book of regional economic conditions will be the highlight of the day, due for release at 18:00GMT. Today’s meeting of Spain’s Mariano Rajoy and France’s François Hollande in Paris is a bit of a non-event for the FX market.
Euro holds above technical supports, still vulnerable
The euro has steadily retreated since hitting a high of 1.3072 last Friday, having reached a 1-week low of 1.2834 on Wednesday. However, EUR/USD has managed to bounce from lows and was virtually unchanged on the day at the 1.2880 zone.
The single currency is now sitting just above key support at the 200-day moving average of 1.2825 and the bottom of its recent range at 1.2803. While a break below 1.2800 would leave it vulnerable to more falls, the upside seems quite limited at the moment. “A lack of progress on any of the key issues the market is watching (Spanish aid request, banking union, decision on Greece) leaves the tone negative”, said the TD Securities team.
From a wider view, the Commerzbank analyst team notes that the USD seems a better choice for traders. “In this limbo between a US economy for which ‘QE3 plus’ has become less likely thanks to the surprisingly solid labour market report last week and a euro zone which is still not agreeing on the conditions for peripheral countries which want to enjoy unlimited ECB interventions the greenback seems the better choice for many”, they explain. “Once again the half-life of European rescue efforts is taking effect, which makes way to disenchantment after a few weeks”.
However, EUR/USD jumps should not be dismiss, especially if Spain requests a bailout and triggers the implementation of the ECB’s bond-buying program (OMT), whose uncertainty has kept many investors on the sidelines these days

H1.2902 L 1.2835

S3	S2	S1	R1	R2	R3
1.2741	1.2773	1.2805	1.2938	1.2970	1.3003

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OASIS500 HOLDS 5TH ANGEL NETWORK EVENT

Amman, July 2012 –Oasis500, the MENA region’s premier early stage and seed investment company, held on Sunday 1^st July, 2012, its 5^thAngel Network Event. As a result of their resounding success, Oasis500’s Angel Network Events have become a leading platform for start-ups to share their projects and pitch for investment opportunities.

The 5^thAngel Network Event was attended by a group of local, regional and international investors, Oasis500 partners and mentors, in addition to a number of media representatives. The event showcased the presentations of eight fast-growth and investment-ready entrepreneurial start-ups within the Information and Communications Technology (ICT), digital media and mobile technologies sectors from across the MENA region.

The start-ups included Gallery Al Sharq, a website that sells oriental media services; andHashdoc, a free sharing platform for professional documents such as templates, samples, presentations, forms and other helpful resources. Also presenting their ideas were Sajilni.com, an event discovery platform and e-ticketing engine for all types of occasions. Also participating in the 5^thAngel Network Event were First Bazaar, an online store for handmade fashion, home decor and vintage products; Healing Land, an Arabic portal that provides medical information and services to patients and medical tourists; as well as Koala, which delivers cloud-based business solutions and applications for the pharmaceuticals industry. The start-ups also comprised Madfoo3atCom, an e-payment gateway that connects billers with local banks using multi channels on a real-time online basis; and Shoozat, an online shoe store that provides a wide selection of footwear and accessories at discounted prices.

Commenting on the Company’s 5th Angel Network Event, Dr. Usama Fayyad, Executive Chairman of Oasis500 and former Executive Vice President and Chief Data Officer of Yahoo! Inc. stated, “At Oasis500, we firmly believe in the vital role our Angel Network plays in supporting up-and-coming start-ups across the region by guiding them to secure lucrative investments and overcome challenges they might possibly face. We are proud of the Event’s outstanding success in terms of the quality of showcased start-ups and the significant financial investments they managed to attract. We look forward to holding many more similar events that facilitate the success of these start-ups.”

Oasis500’s 4^thAngel Network Event, which was held on 14^thDecember, 2011, showcased six promising start-ups including Little Thinking Minds, a multimedia company that offers Arabic educational DVDs, audio CDs, books and flash cards; and Ijazza, a mobile development house and content provider that develops tailored applications for businesses across different sectors. Also presenting ideas at the event were Roznamti, an online social calendar that allows users to share and select events as favorites and synchronize them with personal e-calendars and smartphones; Blueprint, digital and printed content developers that create custom mobile and browser-based applications including audio, video and online editorial content; andShaweet, an online social media platform targeting soccer fanatics offering them a number of social networking features including sharing news, discussions, match highlights, games and more. Tadreesna, an online tutoring portal with features such as an interactive board, text and voice chat; and Manzil.me, the region’s first pay-for-performance real estate rental portal that provides users with accurate, bi-lingual, up-to-date, interactive and informative property listings in a number of cities across the region, where also amongst those presenting.

Oasis500 is the first development and investment company of its kind in the MENA region. It aims to support entrepreneurs by providing them with funding and training in an effort to accelerate the transformation of business ideas into start-up companies in the ICT, digital media, and mobile technologies and content sectors. Oasis500 aims to facilitate the launch of 500 start-up companies within the next five years, which will create an incentive for aspiring entrepreneurs and generate job opportunities within the world’s fastest growing sectors. Since commencing its operations in September 2010, Oasis500 has successfully secured investments for 49 technology companies, in addition to a number of other investments that were unmatched by any investment fund in the region.

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